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Negative beta coefficients were flipped, e.g., they were multiplied by 1, the effect allele became the alternative allele, and the effect allele frequency was subtracted from 1

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We identify several key factors contributing to this discrepancy between alarmist predictions and observed outcomes: The inherent challenges of mass persuasion, regardless of the tools employed The difficulty of reaching target audiences in an oversaturated information landscape and high-choice media environments Emerging evidence regarding the limited effectiveness and use of AI-driven microtargeting in political campaigns The complex interplay of socioeconomic, cultural, and personal factors that shape voting behavior, which often outweighs the influence of AI-generated content The ways in which people consume information and decide who to trust and who to listen to We argue that these factors explain why the worst predictions about the role of GenAI in recent national elections did not come to pass and should make us skeptical about claims that GenAI will upend elections in the years to come